A Forecast That Further Ahead: Proxima Research is Changing the Game in Pharma Analytics

In today’s environment, where the pharmaceutical market constantly balances between regulatory changes, economic turbulence, and shifting consumer behavior, planning must become even more flexible, adaptive, and precise. Ahead of budget preparations for 2026, Proxima Research introduces a new product that is currently unparalleled in Ukraine – the competitive group forecasting module in Market Audit. This isn’t just another feature—it’s a qualitatively new level of analytics, where forecasting extends beyond the general market and adapts to consumption patterns within specific segments and competitive groups.

Proxima Research International—a company with over 30 years of expertise in pharmaceutical analytics—has long been synonymous with reliability for stakeholders in the pharmaceutical industry. Its BI tools are used not only in Ukraine but also in a number of other countries, helping to make quick and accurate decisions.

Market Audit – The Flagship Project of Proxima Research

Market Audit (Market Audit) is the company’s flagship project, currently available in 3 countries. It addresses various business needs:

1. forecasting demand at the level of the entire market, individual product categories, and competitive groups (i.e., segments that each manufacturer creates for themselves through Group Maker),
2. macroeconomic forecasting, considering the impact of inflation and currency exchange rates,
3. monthly sales dynamics forecasting,
4. as well as predictive modeling, which allows for the assessment of potential risks and opportunities in the long term.

Are Classic Approaches Obsolete?

The modern pharmaceutical market is an environment of change: macroeconomic, regulatory, and behavioral. Classic forecasting models often fail to account for the differences in demand between categories, brands, and competitive groups, which reduces the accuracy of plans. The lack of focused analytics and an understanding of demand shifts prevents businesses from identifying trends and adapting in a timely manner.

Next-Generation Analytics: From General to Specific

Proxima Research’s forecasts for the development of the Ukrainian pharmaceutical market demonstrate a high degree of correspondence with actual market dynamics. This can be confirmed by comparing the dynamics of forecasts and actual market volumes.

But now, analytics is reaching a new level. While previously the focus was only on overall market volumes, targeted analytics by competitive groups is now available.

Most of Proxima Research International’s clients are already actively using Group Maker to build competitive groups, and now they have the opportunity not only to create segments but also to see forecasts for the development of these groups. This is a precise mathematical platform on which you can build your plan, taking into account the consumer patterns of your competitive group.

New Precision, New Opportunities, a New Standard of Forecasting

The use of artificial intelligence and machine learning systems has allowed for deeper market forecasting. The new forecasting service allows users to see forecasts for both the market as a whole and the client’s competitive groups 18 months ahead, with monthly data updates in three currencies (national, US dollars, and euros), as well as in packages.

Thanks to the competitive group forecasting module, a user company gains an effective tool that provides automated forecasting of sales volumes, demand, and trends for each specific competitive group. This offers a strategic advantage to see and analyze one’s competitive environment, quickly assess segment dynamics, and make relevant decisions regarding production and distribution, as well as promptly react to changes in demand.

The forecast is generated automatically, which reduces risks and speeds up planning. A perspective of 18 months ahead with an accuracy of ±10% of actual values and monthly updates considering previous trends allows you to see the history and rely on it when forming plans. This provides more predictability, reduces the risk of erroneous decisions, and gives confidence in planning even under unstable conditions.

Market Forecasts with up to 10% Accuracy—A Reality, Not a Promise

The system allows for building accurate forecasts—in 91 out of 100 INNs, an error rate of less than 10% was achieved over an annual interval. This is achieved through:

• The use of the AutoGluon automated machine learning platform, which can build accurate forecasts based on long market series and external information. A modern algorithm selects the best forecasting model without user intervention, reducing the risk of human error.
• Consideration of historical data and trends—dynamics of previous periods, seasonality, cycles, and changes in demand.
• In-depth analysis and identification of relationships between different levels of data, which allows for modeling both global trends and local changes in competitive groups.
• Application of the “window analysis” method, where data is structured into time “windows” (e.g., every 4 weeks), enabling more accurate tracking of patterns within short periods.
• Anomaly processing—automatic detection and smoothing of atypical values (peaks or troughs) using interpolation based on the nearest points.
• Use of official forecast exchange rates and inflation indices for conversion and correction of values when calculating in dollars or euros.

Visualization on Power BI: To See is to Understand

The “Competitive Group Forecasts” module is implemented on the Power BI platform. This means that at the core of the product are interactive dashboards—clear, dynamic visualizations.

An Indispensable Tool in the Pre-Planning Period

In times of high regulatory uncertainty—especially in the context of reference pricing, lists, and changes in pricing that can affect sales and consumer behavior—having an accurate forecast for your segment is critically important. Not just for the market in general, but for the specific competitive group formed for a particular company.

The competitive group forecasting module provides:

• an understanding of the dynamics of the competitive environment,
• a forecast focused on the relevant competitive environment, not on general dynamics,
• accuracy that allows you to act with confidence,
• a basis for assessing your position in the market.

Analytical data provides an understanding of the segment’s potential, as well as the ability to quickly orient in case of demand changes and understand the real competitive landscape. The data is constantly updated, providing a reliable guide for planning and adjusting commercial strategy, as well as making strategic decisions.

Considering that planning for 2026 is on the horizon, this product can become a significant competitive advantage: to see the development of your segment and act proactively with surgical precision.

Analytics That Works for You

The integration of artificial intelligence and machine learning saves hours of analytical work, eliminates the risks of manual data processing, and allows you to focus on the main thing—strategic decision-making. The forecast does not replace the plan—but it creates the foundation for it.

Why AutoGluon? It is a true intellectual ensemble of models, including DeepAR, NPTS, Autoformer, TemporalFusionTransformer, and other advanced machine learning algorithms that work together to build a forecast with maximum accuracy. The system automatically selects the best model individually for each group of drugs. The algorithms identify relationships between different levels of data, which allows for forecasting both global and local trends. The use of optimized machine learning methods allows for working with large datasets, regardless of the level of detail, without sacrificing accuracy. The modeling process is fully automated, automatically selecting the best parameters and optimal combinations of models, eliminating the need for manual tuning.

How Does the Model Work?

5 steps from data to decisions:

1. Data Processing—includes removing anomalies, checking for gaps, harmonizing currency rates and inflation changes, and transforming time series to improve predictive ability.
2. Forecast Ensembling—AutoGluon automatically combines machine learning algorithms (DeepAR, NPTS, Autoformer, etc.), and multi-level forecast merging is applied to increase accuracy.
3. Automatic Best Model Selection—models are evaluated using sMAPE, RMSE, MASE, MAPE metrics, and the model with the lowest error is automatically selected.
4. Macroeconomic Correction—involves using XGBoost to analyze forecast deviations.
5. Integration and Visualization.

This is not just a product—it’s the next milestone in the evolution of analytics

The “Competitive Group Forecasts” module is more than just another feature. It is a logical evolution into the world of predictive analytics, a response to the challenges of our time and the demands of manufacturers. It is precision in a world of uncertainty.

Advantage Over Competitors

Currently, there is no alternative to such a product on the Ukrainian market. This is not just a temporary advantage—it is a powerful technological resource that opens new horizons for those who are ready to make decisions based on accurate data now.
While most tools forecast general trends, the competitive group forecasting module allows you to see your place in the market, not by focusing on the “average temperature of the hospital,” but by assessing the real behavior of real competitors.

Understandable Not Only to Analysts

The forecasting module is designed so that it can be used not only by analytics specialists but also by marketing, sales, production, and logistics teams. The Power BI interface provides convenient navigation, quick access to key metrics, and visual comparison of scenarios. This makes the tool versatile for all departments.

Accurate Forecasts for Competitive Groups—A Luxury or a Necessity?

The next step is yours. We have created a tool that allows you to see the development of your segment with maximum accuracy. A forecast that works. Data you can trust.

Today, analytics is not just about numbers. It is a compass in a sea of uncertainty. There is no point in making plans blindly when there is an opportunity to see the picture ahead. And to see it not in general terms, but in your own mirror—through the prism of your competitive group.

Your competitive group is your guide.

The future is already here. And it is measurable.

Let’s see the results live, shall we?

We forecast results for the pharmaceutical business. Contact us for a study of your products’ competitive environment.

Request a free consultation with a manager to try it right now.

Order Now