11.02.2025
According to estimates by the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine, in 2024, the country’s GDP growth was 3.6% compared to the previous year. The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) estimates this growth at 3.4%, while the World Bank forecasts a GDP increase of 3.2%.
Regarding prospects, international financial organizations have revised their forecasts downward. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Ukraine’s GDP to rise by 2.5–3.5% in 2025, while the World Bank projects only a 2% increase. Meanwhile, Ukrainian institutions present more optimistic expectations: the NBU forecasts real GDP growth in 2025 to reach 3.6%. According to the NBU, the inflation rate in 2024 was 12%.
International financial aid remains an essential factor in stabilizing the macroeconomic situation. In 2024, Ukraine received $42 billion in loans and grants from international partners. External financing volumes in 2025 are expected to total $38.4 billion. The NBU notes that nominal household incomes continue to grow at double-digit rates, positively impacting the pharmaceutical market.
In this repor, we will consider key indicators for 2024 and trends in the development of the pharmaceutical market of Ukraine in 2025. The analysis is based on data from the analytical system “PharmXplorer” of the Market Audit Ukraine project of the company “Proxima Research”.
In 2024, total pharmacy sales of “pharmacy basket” goods reached UAH 194.7 billion, 19% more than in 2023. In volume terms, retail sales amounted to approximately 1.3 billion packages, exceeding the previous year’s figure by 1%. Meanwhile, in USD terms, sales grew by 8%, reaching $4.8 billion.
In monetary terms, pharmacy sales growth was observed across all categories of “pharmacy basket” goods. However, in volume terms, a decline was recorded in the medicinal products category (-0.9%). The fastest-growing category was dietary supplements: in 2024, their sales increased by 28% in monetary terms and 13% in volume. This significantly exceeds the growth rates of other categories and the overall market average. Consequently, the share of dietary supplements in the total market structure continues to rise. By the end of 2024, they accounted for 11.2% in monetary terms and 8.9% in volume terms.
It is worth noting that on December 5, Parliament passed Bill No. 11389 in the second reading, which aims to improve the regulation of dietary supplement production and circulation. Once enacted, this law may alter the growing dietary supplement market share trend.
In 2024, the share of domestic products in monetary terms increased compared to 2023. Meanwhile, in volume terms, foreign manufacturers demonstrated growth.
The average weighted price of one package of “pharmacy basket” goods in 2024 was UAH 150.4, up 17.7% from 2023. The most expensive category remains dietary supplements, with an average price of UAH 188.0 per package. For medicinal products, this figure was UAH 182.3; for cosmetics – UAH 156.7; and medical devices – UAH 41.6.
By the end of 2024, retail sales of medicinal products reached UAH 153.1 billion, a 17.8% increase from 2023. In USD, the sales volume was $3.8 billion, with a growth rate of 7.3%. In volume terms, sales decreased by 0.9%, totaling 841.1 million packages.
Monthly pharmacy sales dynamics of medicinal products show that the market grew rapidly at the beginning of the year, including in volume terms, but later slowed down. The decline in sales volume is linked to demographic challenges: the population with access to the market is shrinking due to migration, depopulation, and population losses in occupied territories.
Given the decline in physical consumption of medicines, the primary monetary driver of market growth has been inflation, which has affected pharmacy sales volumes through rising prices. By the end of 2024, this impact is estimated at 13%, aligning with the national inflation rate (12%).
In 2024, prescription drugs grew in the share of total pharmacy sales. The share of domestic medicines increased in monetary terms, while the share of imported drugs rose in volume.
Across ATC classification Level 2 groups, all top 10 groups experienced sales growth, with market leaders demonstrating above-average growth rates.
The leaders in pharmacy sales of medicinal products and dietary supplements in monetary terms in 2024 were three Ukrainian companies: Farmak, Darnitsa, and Kyiv Vitamin Plant. Among brands, the top positions were held by Nurofen, Xarelto, and Nimesil.
In 2024, the leading distributors remained Optima-Pharm, BaDM, and Venta.LTD. Competition among key players remains intense.
In the second half of 2024, Ukraine’s economic growth rate was lower than expected. In October forecasts, both international and Ukrainian institutions revised their projections: the NBU lowered its 2025 GDP growth forecast from 4.3% to 3.6%. At the same time, long-term economic forecasts for 2026–2027 were improved, though the situation remains unstable due to high security risks.
Further growth is anticipated in the pharmaceutical market: projections indicate that retail sales of medicinal products in 2025 will increase by 16.1% in monetary terms.
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